Speeding Neutrinos

New results show neutrinos still faster than light - Lisa Grossman

One of the most staggering results in physics – that neutrinos may go faster than light – has not gone away with two further weeks of observations. The researchers behind the jaw-dropping finding are now confident enough in the result that they are submitting it to a peer-reviewed journal.

"The measurement seems robust," says Luca Stanco of the National Institute of Nuclear Physics in Padua, Italy. "We have received many criticisms, and most of them have been washed out."

Faster-than-light neutrino update: What's going on behind the scenes? - Maggie Koerth-Baker

The publication process for a research paper about physics works a little differently than other subjects. That's because of arXiv. Funded by Cornell University, this site posts research papers, before they're formally published in a scientific journal. Unlike most scientific journals, which charge big fees for subscriptions or even to view a single paper, arXiv is free and open to the public. You can read everything published there—more than 700,000 papers about physics, math, computer science, and more. The other big difference: arXiv isn't peer reviewed. At least, not ahead of time.

A lot of the time, when you read a newspaper article about a new study in one of those fields, the study hasn't actually yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal. It's just been posted to arXiv, which sort of becomes a crowd-sourced peer review peer review of its own. Especially for headline-grabbing research making big, bold claims.

That's the background you need to understand what's going on right now with the study that claimed to find neutrinos traveling faster than the speed of light. That announcement was made in an arXiv paper. Putting those results on arXiv was as much a way of saying, "Woah, we just found something crazy, please tell us if you see something we've done wrong," as it was a formal declaration of scientific discovery.

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That's why it's not terribly weird that you're now hearing all sorts of criticism of the original FTL neutrino findings. That's what was supposed to happen. It's also not terribly weird that the original researchers have announced that they're going to re-do the experiment themselves, taking into account some of the big criticisms brought up on arXiv.

Particles break light-speed limit - Geoff Brumfiel

An Italian experiment has unveiled evidence that fundamental particles known as neutrinos can travel faster than light. Other researchers are cautious about the result, but if it stands further scrutiny, the finding would overturn the most fundamental rule of modern physics — that nothing travels faster than 299,792,458 metres per second.

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The idea that nothing can travel faster than light in a vacuum is the cornerstone of Albert Einstein's special theory of relativity, which itself forms the foundation of modern physics. If neutrinos are travelling faster than light speed, then one of the most fundamental assumptions of science — that the rules of physics are the same for all observers — would be invalidated. "If it's true, then it's truly extraordinary," says John Ellis, a theoretical physicist at CERN.

Ereditato says that he is confident enough in the new result to make it public. The researchers claim to have measured the 730-kilometre trip between CERN and its detector to within 20 centimetres. They can measure the time of the trip to within 10 nanoseconds, and they have seen the effect in more than 16,000 events measured over the past two years. Given all this, they believe the result has a significance of six-sigma — the physicists' way of saying it is certainly correct. The group will present their results tomorrow at CERN, and a preprint of their results will be posted on the physics website ArXiv.org.

Eurozone Watch

The Complete And Annotated Guide To The European Bank Run (Or The Final Phase Of Goldman's World Domination Plan) - Tyler Durden

"Nervous investors around the globe are accelerating their exit from the debt of European governments and banks, increasing the risk of a credit squeeze that could set off a downward spiral. Financial institutions are dumping their vast holdings of European government debt and spurning new bond issues by countries like Spain and Italy. And many have decided not to renew short-term loans to European banks, which are needed to finance day-to-day operations. " So begins an article not in some hyperventilating fringe blog, but a cover article in the venerable New York Times titled "Europe Fears a Credit Squeeze as Investors Sell Bond Holdings." Said otherwise, Europe's continental bank run in which virtually, but not quite, all banks are dumping any peripheral exposure with reckless abandon is now on.

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To summarize: everyone is dumping European paper, except for the ECB and Italian banks, which have no choice and instead have to double down and buy more. In the meantime, the market is going increasingly bidless as liquidity evaporates, confidence has disappeared and virtually everyone now expects a repeat of Lehman brothers. Of course, this means that when the bottom finally out from the market, the implosion of the Italian banking system, and thus economy, will be instantaneous. And when Italy goes, so goes its $2 trillion+ in sovereign debt, and at that point we will see just how effectively hedged and offloaded the rest of the world is, as contagion shifts from Italy and slowly but surely engulfs the entire world.

Incidentally, is it really that surprising that Goldman is now doing its best to precipitate a bank run of Europe's major financial institutions by "suddenly" exposing the truth that was there all along? During the great financial crisis of 2008, the one biggest winner from the collapse of Bear and Lehman was none other than the squid. This time around, Goldman has set its sights on Europe and has already made sure that its tentacles will be in firmly in control at all the right places when the collapse comes, as the Independent shows.

Guest Post: How Monetization Happens: Being at the Helm When the Ship Goes Down - Tyler Durden

Via Lew Spellman of the Spellman Report

How Monetization Happens: Being at the Helm When the Ship Goes Down

The consequences of excess debt are now facing the leaders of Europe head on, and a monumental decision must be made whether explicitly or implicitly. Excess debt leads to a long chain of D words: Deleveraging in an attempt to retire debt results in a depressed economy and declining asset prices. The depressed economy breeds private debt defaults that in turn produce distressed banks. The chain then runs through depositor flight from the banks, producing a financial crisis and in turn a devaluation of the currency as capital flees. When foreign goods become more expensive there is a declining standard of living as import prices rise faster than wages. Then in an effort to stop the government debt trap, there is a default on promised entitlements under an austerity program leading to the swift defeat of the political leaders. But ultimately there is a sovereign restructuring or a default of the government debt. Most, if not all, the D words are visiting Europe at the moment and its leaders are falling by the wayside.

There is not a precise science that tells us when the debt trap begins the downward spiral that takes the ship down, but there are some rough guidelines. Reinhart and Rogoff (This Time is Different) have found to the extent one can generalize when a country’s debt-to-income ratio reaches the 90 percent level the ship of state begins to list and currently the OECD aggregate of 30-country gross debt-to-income ratio is 105 percent.

Lots more at The Spellman Report channel on YouTube.


The Euro Zone's Deadly Domino Effect - Wolfgang Münchau

The main problem of a Greek exit from the euro zone is not necessarily the direct impact on banks. I believe our government when they say that they would be able to get that under control. The real problem is the next domino. The crisis will spread unchecked to Italy. If Greece leaves the euro zone, then owners of Greek bonds will lose their entire investment. At best, the Greeks would pay them back a small part of their investment -- in almost worthless drachmas.

Crises Must Be Solved Quickly and Decisively

So what kind of investor in his or her right mind would purchase Portuguese, Spanish or Italian sovereign bonds in this kind of situation? Not even a yield of 7 percent can make up for all the risk that Italy won't be able to pay back its debt. As things now stand, Italy's debt accounts for 120 percent of its annual GDP, growth is close to zero and the country is currently slipping into a deep recession. In fact, it's a matter of mathematical inevitability that Italy won't be able to service its loans if interest rates on its sovereign debt don't fall.

11/24 Update:
German Bond Auction Fails - Megan McArdle

Effectively, Germany and France and a handful of other tiny countries have to guarantee both the sovereign debt and the bank liabilities of the whole eurozone. Given the holes that recent events have exposed in these systems, can they credibly do that? Even if the Greeks and Italians don't use that guarantee as a blank check to avoid reform?

We may be getting an unhappy answer to that question: a German bond auction went rather badly today. In fact, a lot of commentators are using words like "disastrous". They sold just over half of the €6 billion they had put out to market, the worst such outcome anyone can remember. This comes on the heels of a Spanish debt auction in which the yields on their three month notes more than doubled to 5%. That's a higher interest rate than I pay on my credit card.

I've seen three explanations offered for this:

1. The market is pricing the euro, not German credit
2. Bund yields, at 1.98%, are too low to be attractive
3. European banks are delveraging, depriving the auction of buyers

Dexia Bailout On Verge Of Collapse, Threatens To Take France AAA Rating Down With It - Tyler Durden

Having followed the fortunes of the beleaguered Belgian bank [Dexia Bank Belgium] from before it appeared on anyone's worksheets, we are hardly surprised that the EU Commission charged with confirming the good-bank / bad-bank restructuring is concerned at the deal that Belgium has with the French (and Luxembourg) government to backstop/finance Dexia's debt. Belgium's De Standaard (and two other European newspapers) today suggests the Belgians fear the EUR90bn deal is 'not feasible' as it stands (with a Belgium 60.5%, France 36.5%, and Luxembourg 3% weighting). Given the change in market conditions the commission, according to the article, is concerned at the ability of each country to finance its respective guarantee (most obviously Belgium) and therefore can renegotiate the October bailout deal.

11/25 Update:
Death Spiral in Euroland - Jeff Carter

Europe has hit the point of no return I am afraid. Debt ratings in some countries went to junk yesterday. Italy paid record highs in their latest auction. Tell me, how is Italy not junk?

The only countries in Europe that aren’t junk are probably France and Germany. However, without knowing the true exposure of their government finances to the rest of the EU, it’s hard to know if they can maintain their status or not. As rates continue to steepen in weekly European Union debt auctions, the entire continent speeds it’s collision course with stagflation.

The only way out of their financial mess is print money or grow. They aren’t going to grow given their current economic policies.

Want to read something scary about Europe? - Michael Barone

Sarkozy is the brother of French President Nicolas Sarkozy and a high executive at The Carlyle Group; Altman is a Wall Streeter with Evercore Partners who served in the Clinton Treasury Department. Sarkozy seems to think the Eurozone countries are going to have to come up with a financial rescue package ten times the size of our TARP--and very soon.

Sarkozy: Europe's "Liquidity Run" Has Begun Because There Is An Unsolvable $30 Trillion Problem - Tyler Durden

In the meantime, Sarkozy on Europe math fail: "The math I'm working with is very simple. In the US banking sector, we had 3 trillion of wholesale funding that needed to be stabilized, got stabilized by the implementation of TARP which saw the US treasury buy $212 billion worth of preferred in the banking sector to stabilize that $3 trillion, give our banks the time to work through their problem assets. In Europe, that $3 trillion is $30 trillion. So if you multiply the $212 by 10, you get the $2.12 trillion. In my view, the issues on the European banks are bigger than the issues on the books of the US Banks. So if you want to stabilize that $30 trillion and in my view it's not that you want to, it's that you have to, you do not have a choice, you're going to have to be at least at 2.1 trillion and I suspect it may need to be more." Q.E.D. - there, the math wasn't that difficult, was it?

"Awful" Italy debt sale heightens euro zone stress - Valentina Za

Italy paid a record 6.5 percent to borrow money over six months on Friday and its longer-term funding costs soared far above levels seen as sustainable for public finances, raising the pressure on Rome's new emergency government.

The auction yield on the six-month paper almost doubled compared to a month earlier, capping a week in which a German bond auction came close to failing and the leaders of Germany, France and Italy failed to make progress on crisis resolution measures.

Though Italy managed to raise the full planned amount of 10 billion euros, weakening demand and the highest borrowing costs since it joined the euro frightened investors, pushing Italian stocks lower and bond yields to record highs on the secondary market.

Yields on two-year BTP bonds soared to more than 8 percent in response, a euro lifetime high, despite reported purchases by the European Central Bank.

Death of a currency as eurogeddon approaches - Jeremy Warner

What we are witnessing is awesome stuff – the death throes of a currency. And not just any old currency either, but what when it was launched was confidently expected to take its place alongside the dollar as one of the world's major reserve currencies. That promise today looks to be in ruins.

Contingency planning is in progress throughout Europe. From the UK Treasury on Whitehall to the architectural monstrosity of the Bundesbank in Frankfurt, everyone is desperately trying to figure out precisely how bad the consequences might be.

What they are preparing for is the biggest mass default in history. There's no orderly way of doing this. European finance and trade is too far integrated to allow for an easy unwinding of contracts. It's going to be anarchy.

Science and Engineering II

Engineering is a difficult course of study. Unfortunately the difficulties are often unnecessarily multiplied for students. The 'top' programs are usually plagued with inadequate instruction, overwhelming course loads, and a competitive atmosphere.

But worst of all is the fact that the necessary years of academic drudgery are completely detached from the real-world practice of engineering. While being a working engineer is also hard work, it is hard in an entirely different way.

First of all, as a working engineer you will work on a team with other engineers, all of whom will depend on your work and thus have a vested interest in your success. This takes the edge off the competitiveness and can even lead to a close-knit sense of camaraderie. Second, as an engineer you get the time to more fully investigate and solve the problem at hand. Your employer needs experts and if no experts are already available, you will become that expert. And third, as you develop professional expertise, the work itself becomes rewarding in a way that no throw-away student project can ever be.

So the relationships are healthier. Your expertise becomes deep and practical. And the rewards are more lasting and tangible.

And so my advice to discouraged engineering students is to hang in there. Being an engineer is a lot better than being an engineering student. If you have the gift for math and science, it can be a great career with a wide variety of rewarding opportunities. And if you are used to getting A's, do not be discouraged by B's or even C's. If you persevere, the hard work will pay off.


Confessions of an Engineering Washout - Douglas Kern

Not long ago, I showed up for my first year at Smartypants U., fresh from a high school career full of awards and honors and gold stars. My accomplishments all pointed towards a more verbal course of study, but I was determined to spend my college days learning something useful. With my strong science grades and excellent standardized test scores, I felt certain that I could handle whatever engineering challenges Smartypants U. had to offer. Remember: Kern = real good at math and science.

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I nearly fainted when I learned that I received a 43% on the Physics final. I nearly fainted again when I learned that the class average was 38%. ... Having allegedly mastered 43% of the course material, I was now deemed fit to take even harder Physics classes. I wondered: at the highest levels of physics, could you get a passing grade with a 5% score on a test? A 3% score? A zero? Could drinking from a fire hose actually slake your thirst?

Exhausted and demoralized, I stumbled into my next semester of engineering. My new math T.A. had all of my old T.A.'s inability to teach, but half of her mastery of English. One day in class I heard myself saying: "If I understood what I didn't understand about the problem, I would understand the problem, and therefore I wouldn't be asking a question." The T.A. stared at me across a void that seemed increasingly unbridgeable.

The course was called "Discrete Mathematics." Many people thought that the course was called "Discreet Mathematics." Wrong. To clarify: "Discrete Mathematics" is "the mathematics in which Kern was getting a D at midterm." "Discreet Mathematics" is "how Kern dropped that class along with the rest of his engineering course load and signed into liberal arts classes, all on the last day he was eligible to do so, because he couldn't stand the stress, abuse, and lack of comprehension anymore." No one waved goodbye to me at the engineering door.

The United States contains a finite number of smart people, most of whom have options in life besides engineering. You will not produce thronging bevies of pocket-protector-wearing number-jockeys simply by handing out spiffy Space Shuttle patches at the local Science Fair. If you want more engineers in the United States, you must find a way for America's engineering programs to retain students like, well, me: people smart enough to do the math and motivated enough to at least take a bite at the engineering apple, but turned off by the overwhelming coursework, low grades, and abysmal teaching. Find a way to teach engineering to verbally oriented students who can't learn math by sense of smell. Demand from (and give to) students an actual mastery of the material, rather than relying on bogus on-the-curve pseudo-grades that hinge upon the amount of partial credit that bored T.A.s choose to dole out. Write textbooks that are more than just glorified problem set manuals.

Generation Jobless: Students Pick Easier Majors Despite Less Pay - Joe Light and Rachel Emma Silverman

Science classes may also require more time -- something U.S. college students may not be willing to commit. In a recent study, sociologists Richard Arum of New York University and Josipa Roksa of the University of Virginia found that the average U.S. student in their sample spent only about 12 to 13 hours a week studying, about half the time spent by students in 1960. They found that math and science -- though not engineering -- students study on average about three hours more per week than their non-science-major counterparts.

EU Crackup Begins

Strained By Its Debts, EU Is Breaking Up - IBD Editorials

Euro Zone: It's been clear for some time that the European Union is in deep trouble. But now even its own leaders admit something shocking: The EU, and its currency the euro, may soon be a thing of the past.

The EU has had a troubled existence since the euro was first rolled out on Jan. 1, 1999. Sure, the EU has advantages — a single currency, one giant market, freedom of movement for a well-educated workforce, all benefits. Still, it's impossible to have an economic union based on rules no one follows. And that's exactly what's happened in the EU.

Under the 1993 Maastricht Treaty, no EU country was allowed to run a budget deficit of more than 3% of GDP or issue public debt in excess of 60% of GDP. This was to be the bedrock of the EU's financial stability.

In recent years, Greece, Ireland and Portugal have all run deficits over 10% of GDP. Worse, the debts of Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain average 112% of GDP. In short, the countries on the EU's periphery have used membership as a way to redistribute wealth from Europe's rich north to its poorer south.

For a while it worked. But now the debts are enormous, and the amounts needed to bail out the peripherals from their profligacy are so large that citizens in countries such as Germany are saying "no more." By some estimates, as much as $4 trillion will be needed — a number that would bankrupt the EU.

Europe’s Disaster Is Headed Our Way - Niall Ferguson

But the third reason Americans should care about Europe is more important even than the risk of a renewed financial crisis. It is the danger that what is happening in Europe today could ultimately happen here. Just a few months ago, almost nobody was worried about Italy’s vast debt, which amounts to 121 percent of GDP. Then suddenly panic set in, and Italy’s borrowing costs exploded from 3.5 percent to 7.5 percent.

Today the U.S. gross federal debt stands at around 100 percent of GDP. Four years ago it was 62 percent. By 2016 the International Monetary Fund forecasts it will be 115 percent. Economists who should know better insist that this is not a problem because, unlike Italy, the United States can print its own money at will. All that means is that the U.S. reserves the right to inflate or depreciate away its debt. If I were a foreign investor—and half the debt in public hands is held by foreigners—I would not find that terribly reassuring. At some point I might demand some compensation for that risk in the form of ... higher rates.

Fusion Energy

What's new on the fusion front? - Alan Boyle

ITER is taking the most conventional approach to creating a controlled fusion reaction, which involves magnetic containment of a super-hot plasma inside a doughnut-shaped device known as a tokamak. The European Union and six other nations, including the United States, have divvied up the work load with the aim of completing construction in 2017 and achieving "first plasma" in 2019.

Right now, Oak Ridge National Laboratory and US ITER are testing a fuel delivery system that would fire pellets of ultra-cold deuterium-tritium fuel into the plasma.

"When we send a frozen pellet into a high-temperature plasma, we sometimes call it a 'snowball in hell,'" Oak Ridge physicist David Rasmussen said in an ITER report on the tests at the Dill-D research tokamak in San Diego. "But temperature is really just the measure of the energy of the particles in the plasma. When the deuterium and tritium particles vaporize, ionize and are heated, they move very fast, colliding with enough energy to fuse."

Italian cold fusion machine passes another test - Natalie Wolchover

In the intervening months, Rossi has built a large version of his device that combines many smaller cold fusion modules. At the demo in October, after an initial energy input of 400 watts into each module, each one then produced a sustained, continuous output of 10 kilowatts (470 kW altogether) for three to four hours.

Rossi has not published any details about the inner workings of the E-Cat because the device is not patent-protected, but other cold fusion researchers have theories as to how the process works. Peter Hagelstein, an MIT professor of electrical engineering and computer science and one of the most mainstream proponents of cold fusion research, thinks the process may involve vibrational energy in the metal's lattice driving nuclear transitions that lead to fusion.

Fast and Furious vs. Wide Receiver

Under oath, Holder discredits 'Bush did it too' excuse for 'Gunwalker' - Kurt Hofmann

In 75 seconds of pointed questioning of Attorney General Holder (see sidebar video), Senator John Cornyn has perhaps left the excuse makers scrambling for something better. In that time, he asked Holder if he knew that Operation Wide Receiver (the Bush-era operation) actually did involve an attempt to track the firearms, while Fast and Furious did not. Cornyn then asked Holder if he knew that Operation Wide Receiver was run in conjunction with the Mexican government--Fast and Furious was kept secret from not only Mexico, but from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (BATFE) attaché to Mexico, Darren Gil. Gil, in fact, after discovering on his own what was going on, was basically pushed into retirement when he balked at the near act of war of "walking" guns into Mexico without the Mexican government's knowledge or permission.

Holder was eventually forced into the position of having to put the "Bush did it too" excuse out of its misery himself:

Senator, I have not tried to equate the two--I have not tried to equate Wide Receiver with Fast and Furious. . . . Again, I'm not trying to equate the two.

Follow the link for many other related articles.

‘Furious’ excuse-making - Michael A. Walsh

Blame Bush. The latest defense is that Fast and Furious grew out of a superficially similar Bush-era operation, Operation Wide Receiver, which also sought to trace illegal firearms in Mexico.

Yet the differences are crucial: The Bush op was tightly controlled, with the illegal purchases conducted under tight surveillance, and was a joint Mexican-American endeavor. Plus, it involved only about 500 guns, some fitted with radio tracking devices.

F&F, by contrast, involved thousands of guns, whose purchases were actively encouraged by federal officials and whose transfers across the border went deliberately unmolested. And it was kept secret from our Mexican allies.

Eurozone Update

Barclays Says Italy Is Finished: "Mathematically Beyond Point Of No Return" - Tyler Durden

Euphoria may have returned briefly courtesy of yet another promise for a resignation that will likely not be effectuated for weeks or months, if at all, and already someone has done the math on what the events in the past several days reveal for Italy. That someone is Barcalys, the math is not pretty, and the conclusion is that "Italy is now mathematically beyond point of no return."

European Wheels Spin Faster, Still No Traction - Walter Russell Mead

Even as Prime Minister Berlusconi announced his impending resignation, the yields on Italian bonds rose above seven percent, the highest level yet, and a level that just about everyone agrees will force Italy into a bailout sooner rather than later.

While Italy may not be too big to fail, it is too big to bail out; the IMF and the EFSF can’t handle the consequences of an Italian collapse. An Italian failure would force both Germany and France into massive bailouts of their domestic banking systems, destroy France’s credit rating and generally wreak unspeakable havoc on the increasingly fragile underpinnings of both the single currency and the European economy.

Idiot's Guide to the Euro Crisis - Simon Edge

So what went wrong?

As we discovered in the New Labour years, politicians find it very easy to spend their way into their voters’ good books, knowing that paying the debt back will be someone else’s problem.

In Greece and Italy much of the borrowed cash went on public-sector wage rises.

In the global financial meltdown that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers bank in 2008 all economies contracted and it became painfully clear that the governments of the weakest countries in the eurozone had precious little means of paying back the money.

The debt totals in question are massive. While Britain’s entire debt is around 63 per cent of gross domestic product, Italy’s is 120 per cent and Greece owes 160 per cent of GDP.

That’s like having an income of £20,000 a year and debts of £32,000 on your credit card. And the point of bonds is they need paying back on a specific date. Not doing so is defaulting.