"Nervous investors around the globe are accelerating their exit from the debt of European governments and banks, increasing the risk of a credit squeeze that could set off a downward spiral. Financial institutions are dumping their vast holdings of European government debt and spurning new bond issues by countries like Spain and Italy. And many have decided not to renew short-term loans to European banks, which are needed to finance day-to-day operations. " So begins an article not in some hyperventilating fringe blog, but a cover article in the venerable New York Times titled "Europe Fears a Credit Squeeze as Investors Sell Bond Holdings." Said otherwise, Europe's continental bank run in which virtually, but not quite, all banks are dumping any peripheral exposure with reckless abandon is now on.
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To summarize: everyone is dumping European paper, except for the ECB and Italian banks, which have no choice and instead have to double down and buy more. In the meantime, the market is going increasingly bidless as liquidity evaporates, confidence has disappeared and virtually everyone now expects a repeat of Lehman brothers. Of course, this means that when the bottom finally out from the market, the implosion of the Italian banking system, and thus economy, will be instantaneous. And when Italy goes, so goes its $2 trillion+ in sovereign debt, and at that point we will see just how effectively hedged and offloaded the rest of the world is, as contagion shifts from Italy and slowly but surely engulfs the entire world.
Incidentally, is it really that surprising that Goldman is now doing its best to precipitate a bank run of Europe's major financial institutions by "suddenly" exposing the truth that was there all along? During the great financial crisis of 2008, the one biggest winner from the collapse of Bear and Lehman was none other than the squid. This time around, Goldman has set its sights on Europe and has already made sure that its tentacles will be in firmly in control at all the right places when the collapse comes, as the Independent shows.
Guest Post: How Monetization Happens: Being at the Helm When the Ship Goes Down - Tyler Durden
Via Lew Spellman of the Spellman ReportHow Monetization Happens: Being at the Helm When the Ship Goes Down
The consequences of excess debt are now facing the leaders of Europe head on, and a monumental decision must be made whether explicitly or implicitly. Excess debt leads to a long chain of D words: Deleveraging in an attempt to retire debt results in a depressed economy and declining asset prices. The depressed economy breeds private debt defaults that in turn produce distressed banks. The chain then runs through depositor flight from the banks, producing a financial crisis and in turn a devaluation of the currency as capital flees. When foreign goods become more expensive there is a declining standard of living as import prices rise faster than wages. Then in an effort to stop the government debt trap, there is a default on promised entitlements under an austerity program leading to the swift defeat of the political leaders. But ultimately there is a sovereign restructuring or a default of the government debt. Most, if not all, the D words are visiting Europe at the moment and its leaders are falling by the wayside.
There is not a precise science that tells us when the debt trap begins the downward spiral that takes the ship down, but there are some rough guidelines. Reinhart and Rogoff (This Time is Different) have found to the extent one can generalize when a country’s debt-to-income ratio reaches the 90 percent level the ship of state begins to list and currently the OECD aggregate of 30-country gross debt-to-income ratio is 105 percent.
Lots more at The Spellman Report channel on YouTube.
The Euro Zone's Deadly Domino Effect - Wolfgang Münchau
The main problem of a Greek exit from the euro zone is not necessarily the direct impact on banks. I believe our government when they say that they would be able to get that under control. The real problem is the next domino. The crisis will spread unchecked to Italy. If Greece leaves the euro zone, then owners of Greek bonds will lose their entire investment. At best, the Greeks would pay them back a small part of their investment -- in almost worthless drachmas.
Crises Must Be Solved Quickly and Decisively
So what kind of investor in his or her right mind would purchase Portuguese, Spanish or Italian sovereign bonds in this kind of situation? Not even a yield of 7 percent can make up for all the risk that Italy won't be able to pay back its debt. As things now stand, Italy's debt accounts for 120 percent of its annual GDP, growth is close to zero and the country is currently slipping into a deep recession. In fact, it's a matter of mathematical inevitability that Italy won't be able to service its loans if interest rates on its sovereign debt don't fall.
11/24 Update:
German Bond Auction Fails - Megan McArdle
Effectively, Germany and France and a handful of other tiny countries have to guarantee both the sovereign debt and the bank liabilities of the whole eurozone. Given the holes that recent events have exposed in these systems, can they credibly do that? Even if the Greeks and Italians don't use that guarantee as a blank check to avoid reform?
We may be getting an unhappy answer to that question: a German bond auction went rather badly today. In fact, a lot of commentators are using words like "disastrous". They sold just over half of the €6 billion they had put out to market, the worst such outcome anyone can remember. This comes on the heels of a Spanish debt auction in which the yields on their three month notes more than doubled to 5%. That's a higher interest rate than I pay on my credit card.
I've seen three explanations offered for this:
1. The market is pricing the euro, not German credit
2. Bund yields, at 1.98%, are too low to be attractive
3. European banks are delveraging, depriving the auction of buyers
Dexia Bailout On Verge Of Collapse, Threatens To Take France AAA Rating Down With It - Tyler Durden
Having followed the fortunes of the beleaguered Belgian bank [Dexia Bank Belgium] from before it appeared on anyone's worksheets, we are hardly surprised that the EU Commission charged with confirming the good-bank / bad-bank restructuring is concerned at the deal that Belgium has with the French (and Luxembourg) government to backstop/finance Dexia's debt. Belgium's De Standaard (and two other European newspapers) today suggests the Belgians fear the EUR90bn deal is 'not feasible' as it stands (with a Belgium 60.5%, France 36.5%, and Luxembourg 3% weighting). Given the change in market conditions the commission, according to the article, is concerned at the ability of each country to finance its respective guarantee (most obviously Belgium) and therefore can renegotiate the October bailout deal.
11/25 Update:
Death Spiral in Euroland - Jeff Carter
Europe has hit the point of no return I am afraid. Debt ratings in some countries went to junk yesterday. Italy paid record highs in their latest auction. Tell me, how is Italy not junk?
The only countries in Europe that aren’t junk are probably France and Germany. However, without knowing the true exposure of their government finances to the rest of the EU, it’s hard to know if they can maintain their status or not. As rates continue to steepen in weekly European Union debt auctions, the entire continent speeds it’s collision course with stagflation.
The only way out of their financial mess is print money or grow. They aren’t going to grow given their current economic policies.
Want to read something scary about Europe? - Michael Barone
Sarkozy is the brother of French President Nicolas Sarkozy and a high executive at The Carlyle Group; Altman is a Wall Streeter with Evercore Partners who served in the Clinton Treasury Department. Sarkozy seems to think the Eurozone countries are going to have to come up with a financial rescue package ten times the size of our TARP--and very soon.
Sarkozy: Europe's "Liquidity Run" Has Begun Because There Is An Unsolvable $30 Trillion Problem - Tyler Durden
In the meantime, Sarkozy on Europe math fail: "The math I'm working with is very simple. In the US banking sector, we had 3 trillion of wholesale funding that needed to be stabilized, got stabilized by the implementation of TARP which saw the US treasury buy $212 billion worth of preferred in the banking sector to stabilize that $3 trillion, give our banks the time to work through their problem assets. In Europe, that $3 trillion is $30 trillion. So if you multiply the $212 by 10, you get the $2.12 trillion. In my view, the issues on the European banks are bigger than the issues on the books of the US Banks. So if you want to stabilize that $30 trillion and in my view it's not that you want to, it's that you have to, you do not have a choice, you're going to have to be at least at 2.1 trillion and I suspect it may need to be more." Q.E.D. - there, the math wasn't that difficult, was it?
"Awful" Italy debt sale heightens euro zone stress - Valentina Za
Italy paid a record 6.5 percent to borrow money over six months on Friday and its longer-term funding costs soared far above levels seen as sustainable for public finances, raising the pressure on Rome's new emergency government.
The auction yield on the six-month paper almost doubled compared to a month earlier, capping a week in which a German bond auction came close to failing and the leaders of Germany, France and Italy failed to make progress on crisis resolution measures.
Though Italy managed to raise the full planned amount of 10 billion euros, weakening demand and the highest borrowing costs since it joined the euro frightened investors, pushing Italian stocks lower and bond yields to record highs on the secondary market.
Yields on two-year BTP bonds soared to more than 8 percent in response, a euro lifetime high, despite reported purchases by the European Central Bank.
Death of a currency as eurogeddon approaches - Jeremy Warner
What we are witnessing is awesome stuff – the death throes of a currency. And not just any old currency either, but what when it was launched was confidently expected to take its place alongside the dollar as one of the world's major reserve currencies. That promise today looks to be in ruins.
Contingency planning is in progress throughout Europe. From the UK Treasury on Whitehall to the architectural monstrosity of the Bundesbank in Frankfurt, everyone is desperately trying to figure out precisely how bad the consequences might be.
What they are preparing for is the biggest mass default in history. There's no orderly way of doing this. European finance and trade is too far integrated to allow for an easy unwinding of contracts. It's going to be anarchy.
